What is a crisis?
Well, the Chinese character weiji, which has long been translated as the English word “crisis,” can be translated into two parts: wei, which means “danger” or “peril,” and ji, which has long been mistranslated as meaning “opportunity,” but actually translates as something more like “turning point.”
Based on that bit of information, it seems as though we could develop a basic description of a crisis as the danger that one faces at a turning point. Yes, it’s a simplification, but let’s go with it; and based on this simplification, I’m going to make a big, broad generalization about baseball: The Yankees are at a crisis point.
As of this morning, the Yankees currently sit in second place, six games back from the first-place Boston Red Sox in the race for the American League East division title. They also sit two and a half games behind the Seattle Mariners in the race for the American League Wild Card, which would give them a backdoor entry into the playoffs. This is neither a season-long high, nor a low, for the Yankees; they have been as far back as twelve games back from the Red Sox, and they have been in first-place in the Wild Card chase.
What makes this a crisis point for the Yankees (and yes, I’m well aware that my use of the word “crisis” in the terms of a baseball season trivializes true crises such as, say, Darfur, but hey, such are the foibles of language) is their current schedule and how they are responding to it. After having spent the better part of the month of July and beginning of August amassing an impressive record against a number of sub-par teams, and (for the first time all season) building up their confidence, the Yankees are now at the beginning of a stretch where they’re going to be playing the best teams in baseball (the American League West-leading Angels, as well as the aforementioned Red Sox and Mariners).
How’s it going so far? Not well. The Yankees lost their first two games of this stretch to the Angels; the first, a demoralizing extra-innings loss, and last night’s utter shellacking to the tune of 18-9 (including a sick 10 runs batted in from Angels outfielder Garret Anderson). Which begs the question – where do the Yankees go from here?
From my point of view, there’s three possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: The Yankees catch fire, buoyed by a motivation reminiscent of the way the Indians played in the original “Major League” movie (although, hopefully without having to strip away pieces of clothing from a cutout of their owner in the buff). Players who have been struggling this year (Mike Mussina, I’m looking at you) catch fire, and everybody contributes. The Yankees win the bulk of their games from here out, and take the division by a solid 3 games en route to their first championship in seven years.
Scenario 2: The Yankees play just over .500 ball through this gauntlet of good teams, and do especially well in their games against teams like Detroit and Seattle, which gives them a solid lead in the hunt for the Wild Card by mid-September. Some struggles continue, but none so terrible that they can’t be overcome by hot hitters – which the Yankees continue to have in spades. They make the playoffs, and by then, it’s anybody’s guess.
Scenario 3: Playing these good teams exposes the Yankees’ fatal flaws: an over-reliance on older, erratic pitching, bats that have been streaky all season, and the infusion of young talent that has boosted the Yankees over the past month fades. The Yankees finish out of the running for the playoffs.
This may sound weird, but you know what I’m rooting for? (And keep in mind that I’m a Yankees fan from the Bronx who has lived and died with their successes.) I’m kind of rooting for Scenario #3 here.
I don’t know if it’s possible for me to be a bigger fan of the Yankees’ youth movement. Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Shelley Duncan, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano have all been extremely fun to watch. However, I can’t help but think that a playoff push might not be the best thing for them at this juncture in time. Young arms like Chamberlain and Hughes, who have never really seen an expanse of innings at the level that a major league regular season requires, are probably ill-prepared for the extensive workload that comes with the playoffs; this would be fine if these two weren’t so needed for such a run. However, they are. As a fan, if it comes between overworking these pitcher’s arms and having them flame out or getting them some rest and having them be major contributors for the next decade and beyond, I’ll take 10 years over 1 any day. As for Duncan, Cabrera, and Cano – well, it’s been extremely interesting watching these three turn into behind-the-scenes sparkplugs and on-field players this season; that said, I can’t help but think that part of the reason that they’ve become so prominent in this role is because of the Yankees’ current status as second-place residents. If they’re so motivated by this now, imagine how much stronger their motivation will be next year, after a year out of the playoffs? Failure can be extremely motivating.
Additionally, the brief successes of the youth movement this season should provide Yankees upper management with ample motivation to build around the youth of this team; why should the team spend money on established “stars” if they can get equal production and a bigger spark from younger, homegrown talent? Message boards are abuzz with the potential of young talent with names like Jose Tabata, Eric Duncan, Bronson Sardinha, Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne, and Andrew Brackman – why not work towards giving these kids a shot, while at the same time shedding the extraneous salaries of over-the-hill players? When the Yankees won their first World Championship of the 1990s, in 1996, it was with then-youthful players like Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, and Bernie Williams at the helm. Most of them didn’t win in their first year, but instead built up a head of steam from the rougher years that preceded it.
The Yankees could benefit from a rougher year, I think. It’s all in how you look at the turning point that is at the crux of this particular crisis.
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